The hottest steel morning post iron ore futures wi

2022-08-24
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Iron and steel Morning Post: iron ore futures will launch a wait-and-see steel price fall

core tip: Although crude steel production continues to fall, the situation of oversupply has not changed substantially. It still takes a long cycle for the iron and steel industry to turn losses into profits, and steel prices are difficult to get out of a large unilateral rise in the short term. The national development and Reform Commission, together with upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry, once again issued the voice that the conditions for iron ore futures are gradually maturing. China has no high-speed, and the launch of low-speed iron ore futures will accelerate

[introduction to hot topics]

● national development and Reform Commission: it has become a consensus that "early promotion is better than late promotion" of iron ore futures

recently, the Industrial Coordination Department of the national development and Reform Commission held a conclusion meeting on the topic "Research on the impact of iron ore futures on the development of China's steel industry" in Beijing. An official of the national development and Reform Commission said at the meeting that a consensus had been reached to launch iron ore futures trading in China "sooner rather than later", and the conditions for launching iron ore futures were gradually mature. Li Zhongjuan, deputy inspector of the Industrial Coordination Department of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out at the meeting that under the environment of the gradual adequacy and diversification of iron ore supply at home and abroad, and the rapid development of futures, swaps and spot markets, the view that "it is better to promote late than early" in carrying out iron ore futures trading in China has gradually formed a unified understanding in all participating departments. The conditions for China to promote iron ore futures are gradually mature

interpretation: at present, major international ore suppliers and steel enterprises are using financial means to compete for the right to speak, and the financial attribute of iron ore is increasingly apparent. China is the world's largest importer and consumer of iron ore, and has formed the world's largest rebar, wire rod and other steel products futures market. As a financial instrument, iron ore futures have positive effects such as price discovery and hedging, but there are also risks of speculation. It can be used as a choice and direction to promote the return of iron ore value and serve China's steel and related industries. The launch of iron ore futures will help iron and steel enterprises lock in profit margins and reduce production and operation risks. China has a relatively perfect and mature regulatory environment, and has the conditions to promote iron ore futures. From the era of long-term association to the listing of futures, iron ore, as one of the most important raw materials of bulk commodities, has futures and swap contracts. In 2009, the Singapore Exchange launched iron ore swap contracts based on the iron ore index TSI. On January 29, 2011, India, the world's third largest iron ore supplier, also launched ore Futures (IOF) with TSI as the settlement price. Domestically, Bank of China International in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Futures Exchange also said last year that they would launch their own iron ore futures in 2012. However, the domestic steel industry was in trouble, leading to the postponement of previous plans. This time, the national development and Reform Commission and upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry once again issued the voice that the conditions for iron ore futures are gradually maturing, proving that the launch of China's iron ore futures will accelerate

● most of the three quarterly reports of iron and steel are red, and the profits of enterprises generally decline.

the short post holiday good start failed to completely change the depression of the iron and steel industry. Yesterday, a number of Listed Companies in the iron and steel industry issued performance forecasts for the first three quarters of 2012. Except for a few companies, iron and steel enterprises generally suffered a decline in profits or losses, and their performance turned red. Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (000898), a domestic steel giant, took the lead in issuing the warning of the third quarterly report last weekend. The report predicts a loss of 3.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters. Among them, the single quarter loss in the third quarter exceeded 1.194 billion yuan, with an average daily loss of more than 13million yuan, in sharp contrast to the net profit of 239 million yuan in the same period last year. Angang Steel Co., Ltd. said that since this year, the steel market has been depressed, and the steel price has been running at a low level. Especially after entering the second half of the year, the steel price has further declined significantly. The average steel price of the company from January to September fell by 14% year-on-year. Angang Steel is not the only one losing money. The announcement showed that Hunan Valin steel, which has wire business, predicted a loss of 2.52 billion to 2.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters. Shaogang Songshan is expected to lose 1.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 3180.25% year-on-year

interpretation: the pre loss of the financial statements of listed companies is only a microcosm of the bleakness of the steel industry. According to the data of China Steel Association, the sales revenue of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises in August was 279.45 billion yuan, and the profit income was negative 4.196 billion yuan. The profit situation fell to the lowest point of the year, and the "golden nine silver ten" was only a temporary seasonal correction of the industry. Fubao information believes that the short-term correction of steel prices is difficult to change the reality of huge losses of steel enterprises, and it is also difficult to change the status quo of the upstream and downstream desolation of the entire steel industry. According to the data of China Steel Association, it is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in the country in late September was 1.8428 million tons, with a ten day month on month decrease of 0.74%. Although the crude steel output continues to fall, the situation of oversupply has not changed substantially. It still takes a long cycle for the steel industry to turn losses into profits, and it is difficult for steel prices to get out of a large unilateral rise in the short term

[related]

● Rizhao Iron and steel production capacity has been compressed. Other equipment steel bases used in the experiment or installation have yet to be approved.

on October 15, Shandong provincial government announced the notice on the implementation plan for eliminating and compressing backward production capacity in Shandong Iron and steel industry (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which clearly stipulates that, By 2015, the restructured Shandong Iron and Steel Group and nine iron and steel enterprises in the province will eliminate iron making and steel-making capacity of 14.9 million tons and 22.04 million tons respectively. One of the most eye-catching is Rizhao steel. According to the notice, the capacity of Rizhao steel to be compressed is 7.1 million tons and 5.94 million tons respectively. At the same time, officials from the industrial department of the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission confirmed that everything was ready for the Rizhao fine steel base, only waiting for the final step approved by the national development and Reform Commission

● India's crude steel production capacity is unlikely to reach the target of 200 million tons in 2020

restricted by land acquisition, infrastructure and the availability of raw materials, energy, water and other resources, India's crude steel production capacity is unlikely to reach the expected target. Recently, ARMA, deputy general manager of India's JD steel and energy company (jspl), estimated that at the current growth rate, India's crude steel production will be only 1% by 2020 200 million tons, far from the capacity target of 200 million tons. According to the demand coefficient of 0.8, the average annual demand in the future will be 160 million tons. At that time, there will be a shortage of 10000 tons, and we still have to rely on imports

● Rio Tinto's iron ore production hit a new high in the third quarter. Fmg3's iron ore production fell by 4% month on month

Rio Tinto said in its operation report released today that the total iron ore production in the third quarter was 67 million tons (53 million tons by shares), an increase of 5% year-on-year, of which the iron ore production in Pilbara increased by 5% year-on-year to 62.9 million tons (50.3 million tons by shares), reaching a record level. Since this year, the total output of iron ore has reached 187 million tons (147 million tons by shares), an increase of 4% year-on-year. FMG group, Australia's third largest iron ore producer, said in its quarterly report that the output of iron ore in the third quarter of this year increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons, but decreased by 4% month on month; 15.8 million tons of iron ore were processed, with a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month on month increase of 1%; The total shipment volume of iron ore increased by 30% year-on-year to 16.1 million tons, but decreased by 10% month on month, including 15.4 million tons of FMG shipments and 700000 tons of third-party shipments, with an annualized shipment volume of more than 64 million tons ahead of the original plan

[disk summary]

on October 16, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 125.25 points, or 0.93%, to 13549.71 points; The Nasdaq composite index rose 35.7 points, or 1.16%, to 3102.97; The S & P 500 index rose 14.79 points, or 1.03%, to 1454.92. COMEX gold futures for December delivery rose $8.70, or 0.5%, to $1746.30 per ounce. Light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to close at US $92.09 a barrel. The US dollar index fell 0.53, or 0.66%, to 79.19. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper rose $15.5, or 0.19%, to $8141.75

[futures market analysis]

on October 16, futures snail 01 opened 3585 low, and after a slight decline, it rose throughout the day, breaking through the 3600 level, with a daily maximum of 3614 and a minimum of 3563, and a close of 3611 up 17, or 0.47%. There was too much capital, the trading volume continued to shrink, and the position decreased by 85000 hands. The daily K-line stepped back on the 20 day moving average to gain support and close positive upward. In the short term, pay attention to the competition for the 10 day and 5-day moving average, and the technical indicators are generally stable. The mainstream of spot prices continued to decline, and some small factories rose, but shipments were poor. In terms of operation, keep a wait-and-see attitude for a short time. The snails fluctuate in the expected period, which has a general impact on the spot

[steel market trends]

● ore: on the 16th, the Platts index 62% Pb powder reported $114.75, down $1.25 from the previous working day. In terms of port spot goods, Tianjin Port accounted for 63.5% of Indian Pink yuan/wet ton; Rizhao Port 62% PB fine ore yuan/wet ton; Qingdao port 63.5% Brazilian coarse flour yuan/wet ton; The pessimism in the port spot market narrowed, and the price gradually showed signs of stabilization. In terms of domestic mines, the factory price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder on a wet basis, excluding tax, is Zunhua yuan/ton; Qian'an yuan/ton. Northern steel mills have made up for the decline, and the market prices of major mining areas have fallen, but the phenomenon of low prices in mineral processing enterprises is common, and it is expected that the domestic ore prices will transition smoothly tomorrow

● billet: on the 16th, the transaction of Tangshan strip steel and profile became weaker and the price fell slightly, but the billet dealers still supported the price, the willingness to ship was not strong, the market was short of available spot resources, and the short-term price was expected to be stable. In the afternoon, the square billet fell by 20, and the ex factory price including tax of ordinary carbon square billet such as Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong, Kaiheng and Jianyuan was 3200 yuan/ton, and low alloy 3320 yuan/ton; Dealer naked price; Changli, including tax, was sent to Tangshan 3220

● coke: on the 16th, the ex factory tax price of Luliang secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, Changzhi secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, Linyi secondary metallurgical coke was 1320 yuan/ton, Handan secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, The arrival tax price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton, the flat warehouse tax price of Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton, and the ex factory tax price of Yinchuan tertiary metallurgical coke is 850 yuan/ton. The coke market operates smoothly and the transaction is in good condition. Most coke enterprises have no inventory pressure, but due to cost pressure, they are mostly in a state of loss, their production enthusiasm is limited, the market is in a stalemate, and the short-term stability is mainly maintained

● building materials: at the close of the 16th, the price of grade II conch of Hegang in Beijing market was 3670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton in Shanghai market, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Guangzhou steel grade II snail in Guangzhou market was 4050 yuan/ton, and its error was generally negative, unchanged from the previous day

● plate: at the close of the 16th, the closing price of hot coil in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, and some specifications were still in shortage. The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was yuan/ton, and the transaction continued to be blocked. The closing price of hot coil in Lecong Market was yuan/ton, and the low level gradually decreased

[forecast today]

● building materials: yesterday, the mainstream of building materials across the country continued to decline, and a few small factories rose; Steel factory shipments have increased, social inventories have an upward trend, and the phenomenon of out of stock has also been repaired, while downstream demand is still more wait-and-see, resulting in a continued weak overall performance. Merchants are now more bearish on the aftermarket, with a significantly increased willingness to ship, and low-cost resources continue to emerge; Moreover, the recent poor weather has further affected terminal procurement. It is expected that the price of grade II conch of Hegang in Beijing market is 3650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton in Shanghai market, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou steel in Guangzhou market

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