The hottest steel price can hold when it starts to

2022-08-21
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Can the steel price hold when it starts to rise step by step

the continuous decline in May is finally far away from us, and a new June is finally coming, which is not in line with the expectations of all steel traders. At the beginning of June, the market is crazy. On the other hand, China's industrial development has risen rapidly in recent years. Taking the mainstream City Shanghai as an example, Shagang has increased by more than 180 yuan/ton, so it is not difficult to see that the increase in other regions is bound to be up and down here, Now we can analyze the trend of the market in June from several aspects

first of all, from the perspective of environmental protection: the central environmental protection supervision team will form the building block of PEF in the near future. In fact, it may have a non-linear fragment period, and it will successively enter 10 provinces (regions) such as Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Henan, etc. to carry out a "look back" on the first round of central environmental protection supervision and reform. This inspection is mostly for the shutdown inspection of some small electric furnace plants and medium frequency furnaces, and the Guangdong and Guangdong regions have become the top priority, In addition, in order to ensure the success of the 18th meeting of the Council of heads of state of the SCO Member States held in Qingdao from June 9 to 10, steel mills have increased maintenance and market supply is expected to decrease, which is good for the steel market; However, if the United States reneges again, it will cause the market to rekindle its concerns about the Sino US trade war and become empty; Therefore, from the overall direction, one macroeconomic aspect in June is still not conducive to market price increases

second, inventory: at present, the total inventory of domestic building materials continues to decline. As of May 25, the total social inventory of thread snails nationwide was about 7.387 million tons, with an overall decrease of 24.41% month on month, a decrease of 24.62% last month, and a year-on-year increase of 39.89%; Among them, the total amount of thread was about 5.6588 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 24.74%, a month on month decrease of 23.40%, and a year-on-year increase of 41.59%; The total amount of wire rod was about 1.7282 million tons, a month on month decrease of 23.31%, a month on month decrease of 28.43%, and a year-on-year increase of 34.62%. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output of key iron and steel enterprises was 2.026 million tons in mid May, with a month on month increase of 3.05%; In addition, by the end of ten days, this will also provide inexhaustible development power for the extruder industry. At the end of ten days, the steel inventory of steel enterprises was 13.92 million tons, with a month on month increase of 2.29%; In the hot and rainy season, demand recovers slowly. Although social inventory has shown a continuous decline, the decline rate of inventory in the past two weeks has been far less obvious than that before. Therefore, it can be seen that the hot weather is gradually coming, and the steel consumption in the market is gradually decreasing

third, from the perspective of cost: as of May 25, the profit space of 20mm grade III deformed steel bar of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises was positive 819 yuan/ton, a positive increase of 99 yuan/ton compared with that at the end of last month (positive 720); The profit margin of 6.5mm high-speed wire is positive 1003 yuan/ton, a positive increase of 103 yuan/ton compared with last month (positive 900). Profit margin increased slightly compared with last month; At present, June is a low price. Is it really good? In the traditional off-season, it is mostly high-temperature and rainy weather, and the demand side may be restrained, and the overall demand is difficult to improve. However, recently, some steel mills have limited production to varying degrees, which slightly supports the spot mentality. It is expected that the profit space of small and medium-sized steel enterprises in next month will be slightly smaller than that of last month

analyze from the above points: at present, the overall resources of the market are still normal, and there is no special shortage. In addition, the maintenance of steel mills and environmental protection news support the mentality of merchants. The willingness of mainstream steel mills to support prices is also relatively strong. However, June is the plum rain high temperature season, and it is also the traditional off-season of the market. The steel consumption in the market will gradually decline. It is expected that the steel price may rise first and then fall in June. The overall performance is stronger in the middle and early ten days, and the space temporarily depends on yuan/ton, It is unlikely that it will fall sharply in the second half of the year, so we need to pay close attention to the maintenance of environmental protection and production restriction

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