The hottest steel price does not rule out a reboun

2022-08-16
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Steel prices do not rule out rebounding after rapid decline

in the last week of August, due to the rumored policy of "limiting production by 50% from September 1 in Tangshan" did not appear, expectations failed, and the domestic spot price of steel fell sharply. The maximum decline of steel in the current week was more than 300 yuan, and the billet price also fell 130 yuan. However, experts said that due to the "golden nine silver ten" market is still worth looking forward to, and the recent continuous adjustment of the market, once it is adjusted to the psychological level of the market, the rebound of steel prices after a rapid decline this week cannot be ruled out

since the middle and late July, Tangshan has carried out three weeks of concentrated attack on polluting gases, resulting in material degradation and emission reduction measures. The production of blast furnaces in steel mills has been limited by 20%-30%, and the production of sintering machines has always been limited by about 50%. In addition, it is also rumored that Tangshan may limit the overall production of steel enterprises by 50% from September 1. These two news pushed the steel market prices higher in the first and middle of August

however, with the passage of time, the policy of limiting production by 50% in Tangshan from September 1 did not appear, and expectations failed. Although Linfen City of Shanxi Province also issued a notice on environmental protection and production restriction, the notice requires steel mills and coking enterprises in the region to limit production by 50% from September 1 to October 10, which has a great impact on the output of steel and coke; In addition, due to the import and export Expo to be held in Shanghai in November, some cities in Jiangsu may also limit production by 50%, and Shagang, Yonggang and other steel mills may be affected; Ping'an steel, which had previously stopped production due to environmental problems, was exposed to have to stop production for a long time and did not resume production as expected recently. Although there are these positive factors, Tangshan is still larger and more influential after all. These positive environmental factors failed to stop the decline of the steel market. The futures and spot markets gradually fell in late August, and plummeted last week

monitoring data showed that the rebar 1901 contract closed at 4086 yuan on Friday, down 332 yuan from the highest point of the week; The average spot price of rebar nationwide was 4503 yuan, 134 yuan lower than the highest point of the week; Tangshan billet reported 3980 yuan on Friday, 130 yuan lower than the highest point of the week. Since the price increase of futures market is significantly higher than that of spot market in the past month, the drop range of spot market is significantly weaker than that of futures market in the recent decline trend

although the price fell significantly last week, Ma Li, the chief analyst, believes that from the general trend, the steel market has not yet formed a cliff like decline. At present, the overall inventory level of local steel spot markets is not high, and the overall mentality of the market is relatively stable. From the position of Yongan futures, a well-known futures institution, it significantly reduced multiple orders on Wednesday, from more than 90000 to more than 50000 on the same day, but by Friday, its multiple order position increased to 80000, and the multiple order position exceeded the empty order, which is a new change in the futures market. In addition, environmental protection policies do have an impact on the output of steel mills. On the whole, the market in September and October is still worth looking forward to. It is estimated that by 2026, the total revenue of Paek 3D printing will be $1.181 billion. After the recent continuous adjustment of the market, once the price is adjusted to the psychological level of the market, the market demand that has been suppressed for nearly 10 days may enter the market again, and the rebound after the rapid decline of steel prices this week cannot be ruled out

in terms of inventory, due to the fall in prices, the overall steel transaction situation nationwide is not ideal recently, but the overall inventory situation is still normal and has not increased significantly. According to the statistics, the inventory of construction steel and plate in 29 cities nationwide fell by nearly 100000 tons last week, and the decline of plate inventory is higher than that of construction steel

and the recent restrictions of environmental protection policies. Third, the emergency system inspection has indeed affected the production of steel mills. According to the latest data of CISA, in mid August, the average daily crude steel output of member enterprises of CISA was 1.8952 million tons, a decrease of 41800 tons, or 2.16%, on a month on month basis; The national average daily output is estimated to be 2.4257 million tons, a decrease of 43000 tons or 1.74% month on month. The relatively high price also made the steel traders' wait-and-see mood significantly increased, and their enthusiasm to pick up goods from steel mills decreased. At the end of mid August, the steel inventory of member enterprises of CISA was 12.3384 million tons, with a month on month increase of 396800 tons, an increase of 3.32%

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