The hottest steel market will usher in a good harv

2022-08-15
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Steel market: there will be a good harvest in autumn and winter

the central bank decided to reduce the RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions from July 6. The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits of financial institutions was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was reduced by 0.31 percentage points

I remember that when we first entered July, the central bank sent a policy signal of prudent monetary policy to support the real economy. The asymmetric adjustment of deposit and loan interest rates, which had been rampant before, was finally promulgated today

the test pressure of the bank's half year deposit loan ratio has passed. This interest rate adjustment has attracted deposits from depositors and boosted the confidence of enterprises in loan development. Yang Delong, chief strategist of China Southern Fund, an economist, believes that this interest rate cut is a "timely rain" for the market to curb the rapid decline of economic growth

the author believes that the central bank has cut interest rates for two consecutive months, and the cumulative effect is gradually reflected; In the second half of this year, steel, as a capital intensive industry, will gradually eliminate the long-standing decline in the industry and usher in the spring of development

3. Classified according to the force measurement method

monetary policy supports the real economy

the test pressure of the bank's six-month deposit loan ratio has passed. The continuous interest rate adjustment policy will make it clear that China has entered the interest rate reduction cycle. People are more sensitive to the rumor that the CPI will break 3% in June, because the current one-year deposit interest rate is still 3%, which is still very attractive. In addition, the one-year loan interest rate of 6% fell by 0.31% all at once, 0.06% more than the previous symmetrical reduction of 0.25%, which not only reduced the operating costs, but also increased the burden reduction efforts for the development enterprises that rely heavily on capital needs

the downstream of the steel industry, such as terminal manufacturing, is a typical real economy, and they need to purchase steel as raw materials. This reflects that it is a capital intensive enterprise

the Pearl River Delta region is an area with intensive household appliance manufacturing. Some time ago, enterprises welcomed the policy support of "household appliances to the countryside". The arrival of this interest rate reduction cycle will undoubtedly form a double positive for it

in terms of automobile manufacturing, due to the rapid development of urbanization, taking into account the pressure of traffic and ambient air pollution, Guangzhou issued a household restriction order for small and medium-sized passenger cars at the beginning of this month, which cast a shadow on the development of the automobile industry. The arrival of this intensive interest rate reduction cycle will reduce the burden of capital occupation costs for enterprises with high inventory pressure

in addition, the steel trade industry is in the midstream of steel production, and the inventory pressure is also obvious. This interest rate cut is good for itself and downstream industries, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone

the policy effect is difficult to reverse in the short term, and it is most suitable to consolidate the foundation.

due to the obvious slowdown in economic development at home and abroad, the prices of domestic bulk merchants' shells installed on printed circuit boards have continued to fall recently, and the prices of coal, oil, steel and other products have shown a weak trend

the obvious decline in crude oil prices in Brent and New York once made people daydream that the domestic refined oil price might be lowered again in July. Among them, the crude oil price in New York fell below $80/barrel in late June, but then the international oil price rebounded rapidly due to the escalation of tensions in Iran

due to the sharp decline in coal prices, the profit growth of the coal industry fell sharply. In June, the profit of Shanxi coal industry was 40.08 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, down 33.6 percentage points from the same period last year; The profits of the five major coal groups in Shanxi rarely showed negative growth. At present, the coal market is in a sad state, and the big coal province is very frustrated

in the steel industry, the steel price has been in a downward trend since it began to fall slowly in mid April. 1500 hot-rolled plain carbon steel coils in Shanghai have been reduced from 4360 yuan/ton to 4080 yuan/ton now; Lecong area, Foshan 1 0mm cold rolled plain carbon steel coil is reduced from 5010 yuan/ton to 4620 yuan/ton now; Moreover, the longer the length of sheet metal and lead screw, the 25mm three-stage thread in Guangzhou decreased from 4440 yuan/ton to 4130 yuan/ton in the eyes of ordinary people

steel and other industries have been weak for a long time. Because the recent domestic economic policy is mainly stable growth, intensive interest rate cuts are not expected to significantly rebound in the steel market in the short term. The author believes that CPI is the wind vane of domestic commodity prices. Whether this price benchmark can fall below 3% or not, and whether it can form a backlash in the later stage, will affect the rebound of the steel market to a certain extent. In other words, if the price base is consolidated in midsummer, the steel price will usher in a good harvest in autumn and winter

(source: Alibaba)

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