The hottest steel plant resumed production activel

2022-08-08
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Steel mills resumed production actively, steel prices fell under pressure

recently, the vibration of rebar has intensified. From a technical point of view, rebar is suppressed by multiple moving averages, and the decline channel is clear. Yesterday, the closing price of the main 1601 contract of thread futures was 123 yuan/ton higher than the daily cleaning delivery brand three-level thread quotation of Jinan testing machine in East China and Shanghai (in pounds). The sharp discount of futures also shows that the market expectation is pessimistic. From a fundamental point of view, although it has reached the peak consumption season of golden nine and silver ten, the supply of rebar has increased significantly, the demand release is insufficient, and the spot price is still under pressure to adjust

At the beginning of September, the national steel price oscillated downward, and the supply and demand sides were generally in a stalemate. Terminal procurement has slowed down, the wait-and-see atmosphere of middlemen has increased significantly, and the overall transaction has slowed down significantly. Although it is the off-season of traditional consumption, and the demand driven by infrastructure has indeed improved in recent weeks, the overall improvement of demand is still limited under the situation of sluggish real estate performance, and merchants' expectations for the improvement of demand in the peak season in September are not high

our field survey found that the sales volume in August generally fell compared with that in July. The main reason for the decline in sales volume is the buyer's wait-and-see caused by the early demand overdraft and the current price correction. According to the latest order information, the order receiving situation of new projects started in June and July is better than that from March to May. However, due to the lack of funds, the progress of construction, especially on September 29, 2014, cannot be guaranteed, and the possibility of marginal improvement of demand exists, but it has no explosive force. Due to the continuous rectification and anti-corruption campaign, the approval and implementation of infrastructure projects are also difficult to be fully in place

it is particularly noteworthy that the deterioration of the demand of sheet metal enterprises began to be highlighted in the middle of the year, with the export of household appliances and the production and sales of automobiles declining. In the second half of the year, the demand pressure of sheet metal enterprises was greater than that of building materials enterprises

the export pressure increased in September

from the perspective of external demand, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, China exported 9.73 million tons of steel in August 2015. Due to its good control performance and experimental accuracy, it increased by 20000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 25.9% year-on-year; From January to August, China exported 71.87 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. In August, China imported 1.02 million tons of steel, down 30000 tons from the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 12.82%; From January to August, China imported 8.72 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.54%

from the field research, with the sharp depreciation of the RMB and the follow-up of the exchange rates of the surrounding major exporting countries, the price competition of export orders has reached an unprecedented level. Recently, the FOB quotation of ordinary hot coil has reached 280 US dollars/ton. At the same time, affected by anti-dumping in Europe, America and South Korea, cold rolling and galvanizing orders have been affected to a certain extent. On the whole, building materials enterprises are still under little export pressure due to domestic orders, but plate enterprises are under great pressure to accept orders as competition intensifies and prices deteriorate

steel mills are actively resuming production

in mid August, the national blast furnace operating rate has rebounded significantly. Affected by the production restriction of the military parade, from the end of August to the beginning of September, the blast furnace production in the surrounding areas of Beijing and some areas of Shandong was limited, and the operating rate of steel mills fell to a certain extent. However, statistics on September 7 showed that a total of 25 blast furnaces in 159 blast furnaces in Tangshan were overhauled, with a volume of 22740 cubic meters, accounting for 15.78% of the total volume, and the operating rate was 84.22%, an increase of 12.26 percentage points over last week. After the end of the "military parade blue" production restriction measures, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in Tangshan is more obvious. Most steel enterprises gradually return to the level before the production restriction, and some steel plants will gradually return to market-oriented production guidance in the near future

from the perspective of steel mill profits, at present, the cost of molten iron excluding tax in steel mills ranges from 1250-1350 yuan/ton, the current loss of steel billets from tens of yuan to 100 yuan per ton, and the loss of steel mills in different regions of thread and wire rod from tens of yuan per ton to tens of yuan of profit. The losses of sheet metal enterprises remain at 200-300 yuan/ton

on the whole, the losses of building materials enterprises are still within 100 yuan/ton, which does not meet the conditions for a new round of production reduction. The marginal profit of sheet metal enterprises has been negative for two months, but due to its special institutional reasons and pressure resistance, it has not reached the critical condition of reducing production. It is precisely because steel mills are generally unwilling to reduce production and are more active in resuming production and buying ore that iron ore prices remain high

to sum up, with the end of the military parade, the supply of steel is recovering rapidly, but the demand performance is less than expected. Supply is sure to rise and demand release is difficult to determine. The downward oscillation of rebar is still a probability event. In terms of operation, it is recommended to rebound and empty

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