The more the steel plant loses, the more the production of the strange circle is difficult to solve. The price reaches a new low and the daily output climbs to a new high.
the more the steel plant loses, the more the production of the strange circle is difficult to solve. The price reaches a new low and the daily output climbs to a new high.
China Construction Machinery Information
Guide: 27 the sampling rate can reach 200 per second. The next day, the spot price of domestic rebar has fallen to 3500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from 3530 yuan/ton last weekend, and fell to the new low of the spot market price of steel in recent four years. While the price is at a new low, the daily output of the industry is at a new high. When it comes to the operation of the experimental machine, there is no place more professional than us. Jia LiangQun, an expert, said frankly in an interview: production capacityOn the 27th, the spot price of domestic rebar fell to 3500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from 3530 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and fell to a new low in the spot market price of steel in the past four years
while the price is at a record low, the daily output of the industry is at a record high. Analyst Jia LiangQun said bluntly in an interview: "production capacity is too large, supply exceeds demand, which is a long-term problem that is difficult to solve."
"futures and cash" both continued to decline
"my steel" information shows that at present, the macroeconomic recovery momentum at home and abroad is relatively weak, but crude steel production is still high. Domestic leading steel mills have lowered their ex factory prices in June, and the spot steel market is full of pessimismAt the beginning of May, Baosteel took the lead in announcing a reduction in the ex factory price of mainstream products in June, ranging from 150 yuan to 180 yuan/ton, which is its first reduction in steel prices in nine months. The price change of Baosteel is enough to explain the weak pattern of the current steel market. The ex factory prices of mainstream products of WISCO, Shougang, Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Angang and other steel mills in June immediately "fell", aggravating the bearish mentality in the spot market
compared with historical data, the prices of domestic rebar, hot coil, medium and heavy plate and other mainstream steel products have fallen to the lowest point in the past four years. Compared with the phased high in mid February this year, the prices of rebar, hot coil and medium and heavy plate fell by 540 yuan, 810 yuan and 500 yuan per ton respectively, of which the price of hot coil fell the most, reaching more than 18%
with the adjustment industry model, the price of rebar in the futures market has fallen for three consecutive months since the Spring Festival. As of the morning of May 28, the price of rb1310, the main contract of rebar, has fallen below 3490 yuan/ton. Jia LiangQun said that after the Spring Festival, the steel market only maintained the inertia of rising for less than a week, and then entered a long-term negative market due to weak spot market transactions and lower than expected downstream demand release
according to the statistics of China Steel Association, in the first quarter of this year, large and medium-sized steel enterprises achieved a profit of 2.486 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year, but the profit showed a downward trend month by month, including 1.338 billion yuan in January, 998 million yuan in February, and only 267 million yuan in March; The sales profit margin was 0.28%, and the loss side was 34.9%, of which the loss side in March reached 45.3%. In the following months, steel enterprises continued to lose money
steel mills are in a dilemma
production has been losing money and prices have been falling, but the production enthusiasm of steel mills remains unchanged. According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in China reached 2.929 million tons in early May, which once again set a new high since the China Steel Association had statistical records
although the demand release has been relatively stable since March, and the domestic steel inventory has been destocked for the ninth consecutive week, the current steel market inventory is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure meets the standard: it also continues to rise under the continuous production increase of steel mills
"the current situation is that steel mills are in a collective irrational state. Even if the production capacity is too large and the supply far exceeds the demand, few steel mills are willing to reduce production. For every steel mill, in this collective irrational environment, maintaining production is their most rational choice." Jia LiangQun made such an analysis
"the current steel price has fallen below the cost of raw materials, but it has not touched the cash cost. At this stage, if the steel plant does not stop production, its unit cost is low, but the loss is less, so the steel plant will not stop production for maintenance temporarily." Jia LiangQun further explained
according to the analysis of insiders, the downward risk of the domestic economy has increased, the steel production capacity continues to be surplus, and the whole industry has not seen signs of improvement for the time being. If there is no large-scale production reduction or some favorable policies, the steel price in the third quarter of this year is still not optimistic
Jia LiangQun predicted, "if a specific urbanization plan is introduced in the second half of the year, the steel price will be adjusted upward, but it is difficult to reach the peak in February."